What is Risk and Risk of Serious Harm
One of the most fundamental elements of working with offenders is understanding what risk is and learning how to manage risk.
What is meant by risk?
Risk is usually seen as a potential for a negative consequence.
All actions involve some element of risk, with some actions being riskier and others carrying a greater incentive for a possible positive result (i.e. a risk worth taking).
In terms of offender management, risk is seen as the potential for someone to:
(a) Re-offend;
(b) Be reconvicted;
(c) Cause harm through their actions;
(d) Cause harm to themselves.
The risk of re-offending is labelled as ‘likelihood’ to distinguish the separate areas.
Some offences are statistically more likely to be repeated but may carry a lesser risk of harm, whereas other offences are less likely to be committed but carry a greater risk of harm, such as the offences of theft or murder, respectively.
Risk is by its nature dynamic, however, there are tools which enable risk prediction and through this, risk management.
Static and dynamic risk factors
Various research has indicated which groups or factors relating to a person might predict a higher or lower likelihood of reoffending or causing harm. When these factors are applied to an individual, they form the basis of the risk assessment.
These factors fall in to one of two categories:
Static – a fixed or slow changing factor, such as age, gender and previous behaviour.
Dynamic – a fluctuating factor which may change on a day to day basis and be related to other circumstances in a person’s environment, such as mood, attitude, employment or substance use.
Identifying dynamic risk factors enables a risk assessment to predict situations that are more likely to lead to offending and any actions that need to be taken to control the risk at that point.
Actuarial and clinical assessment
There are also two types of assessments that are used by probation services.
These are:
Actuarial Assessments
Clinical Assessments
An actuarial assessment tends to use static factors (fixed or slow changing factors) to make a prediction regarding future behaviour. These assessments are not always able to take diversity issues in to consideration.
A clinical assessment is the professional view of the assessor based on the information gathered about the offender, including any actuarial assessments and fluctuating factors which may change. For example, loss of accommodation or employment. A clinical view may not always concur with the actuarial prediction.
All clinical assessments must be defensible. This means that it cannot be a personal feeling but must be evidenced through information collected by the professional. This information should include:
An interview with the offender
Information from other agencies working with the offender
Other relevant actuarial assessments.
A good example of an assessment tool used by probation is OASys (Offender Assessment System). OASys provides a holistic assessment in that it combines actuarial with clinical and enables the professional to evidence, structure and defend a decision on risk and risk prediction.
Basics of risk assessment
When completing OASys or a risk assessment, there are a number or factors/areas that you need to consider. These are:
Who is at risk?
The nature of the risk?
When the risk is likely to be at its greatest (dynamic risk factors)?
Whether the risk of harm is imminent?
What circumstances are likely to reduce risk?
A risk assessment should also consider:
Current behaviour: the analysis of the current offence, concerns regarding victim/victim choice, underlying behaviour such as obsessive or compulsive behaviour, the offender’s mental state and predisposing or situational factors, such as drug use or associates.
Previous history: any behaviour which has not resulted in a conviction, repeated impulsive behaviour, violence towards animals, threats and fantasies.
Note: Risk assessments must always be based on defensible decisions. A defensible decision is one where all reasonable steps have been taken to collect information and it has been thoroughly evaluated. It is defensible when reliable assessment methods have been used and decisions have been recorded and subsequently carried out, where policies and procedures have been followed and where an investigative and proactive approach is used.
What is meant by serious harm?
Serious harm is defined as a harm which is life threatening and/or traumatic and from which recovery, whether physical or psychological, is expected to be difficult or impossible.
It is important to remember that the impact of harm can be different for each victim, and it is the impact that is measured by the term ‘serious harm’.
When assessing risk of serious harm, the imminence of the potential event also needs to be taken in to account.
There are four levels of imminence:
Low: No significant/current indicators of risk of harm;
Medium: There are identifiable indicators of risk of harm. The offender has the potential to cause harm but is unlikely to do so unless there is a change in circumstances, for example, failure to take medicine, loss of accommodation, relationship breakdown, drug or alcohol misuse;
High: There are identifiable indicators of risk of harm. The potential event could happen at any time and the impact would be serious;
Very high: There is an imminent risk of serious harm. The potential event is more likely than not to happen imminently and the impact would be serious.
As indicated by the four levels, no one is considered ‘no’ risk and so the lowest assessment of risk of serious harm is to be a low risk.
If a SU has committed an act previously that may have caused serious harm then, except in rare cases, it would be appropriate to consider the minimum risk level as medium.
In this situation, the identifiable indicators of harm were once present and the potential to cause harm arose and was acted on. It may be that these indicators do not arise again, that the change in current circumstances does not occur, but that does not change the assessment of medium.
Making your Assessment (a structure)
When identifying who is at risk, the assessor must be specific as to the group. Categories include:
The public
Children or Child
A known adult (state who this is or what relationship the known adult would be to the SU)
Staff
Self (SU).
Important: Any identified risk of harm to children must be referred to social care and you should also consider risk to prisoners in your risk assessment.
Now that you know what risk is and who the risk is to, it can be described as follows:
For example, Ms X is at risk, the nature of the risk is domestic abuse. The risk is based on knowledge from the index offence and previous offences against Ms X. The child that Ms X and Mr X have together is also at risk; the risk is a direct result of domestic abuse and is linked to potential harm to the child, physical and emotional.
Describe when the risk is likely to be greatest
The next stage would be to assess timescales and indicate whether risk is immediate or not.
For example, the risk is likely to be greatest if Mr X is consuming alcohol and drugs. The index offence occurred when Mr X was intoxicated and he has a history of alcohol misuse and violent behaviour in relationships. The risk is likely to increase in the event of the SU being homeless. Mr X also has a history of using weapons during assaults, namely knives.
Note: Describe what circumstances are likely to increase the risk now and in the future.
You will then need to describe what could increase the risk.
For example; There are some concerns about Mr X’s response to the programme and being challenged about his behaviour. Mr X is known to return to his previous behaviour once probation is complete.
Describe what factors are likely to reduce the risk
In your risk assessment, ensure that you identify the protective factors that could reduce risk.
For example; The factors likely to reduce the risk of harm include encouraging Mr X to engage with drug and alcohol services and successful completion of a programme. Mr X currently has stable accommodation and resides with supportive parents who are aware of his offending. Mr X has spent time in custody and there have been no negative reports about his behaviour whilst on remand. Mr X has expressed a willingness to comply with his Court Order.